International Form: Meaningless, Most of the Time

Back in 2022, during the World Cup in Qatar, an article in The Athletic questioned whether a team’s form mattered in the build-up to the tournament. It concluded that France were in a pickle, after winning just one preceding game in five. Yet the European nation went on to lose on penalties 2-4 in the Final against Argentina. So much for form.

A Random Event

Form, defined as how well a team (or player - or even a horse) is performing, has parallels in many parts of society. Traders on the stock market study historical price data, for instance. Similarly, online casinos allow players to view previous hands or spins. Describing its fun live blackjack games, British operator Paddy Power says that its “hand histories” help newcomers improve their understanding of the game.

Knowing the outcome of a finished game doesn’t help players predict the spin of a wheel in roulette, however. It is a random event. While football seems to exist on the opposite end of the scale - not so much random but so dependent on variables it might as well be - a quick look at the form tables for the Premier League reveals a correlation with position. As of mid-February, the top three clubs form-wise stand in the top four in the table.

"Half-Fever Dream"

There’s a problem. Form is often temporary, which gives us some false results. The third-best side in the last five games - Everton - stands in the bottom half. The reverse scenario affects Aston Villa, who have only won one match in five but sit comfortably in ninth. Overall, though, predicting a team’s position from recent performance(s) isn’t a difficult science - but that’s in domestic competitions. As hinted at earlier, things aren’t quite as logical when borders are crossed.

The World Cup is a very different game from the Premier League. The Athletic described the competition as a “half-fever dream” where randomness defeats sense. Players may have limited experience with each other and clashing schedules inevitably throw together teams that may have never been on the same continent before. The obvious example is England’s ‘Golden Generation’ of the 2000s, which became an ironic title after they failed to qualify for Euro 2008.

2026 World Cup

Sports Illustrated once described international football as an “intangible medium” compared to the club game. The magazine pointed to the fact that four players - England’s Gary Lineker and Michael Owen and Germany’s Miroslav Klose and Lukas Podolski - were only consistent at international level, suggesting that there’s more to consider on the world stage than how a player is doing domestically. Other examples cited were Danny Welbeck and James Rodriguez.

The 2026 World Cup has yet to crest the horizon but the bookies are already predicting the winner (currently, France, England, or Brazil at 7/1). Studying form will be a potential hazard over the next year because the quality of competitors tends to be low. England, except for a miserable loss to Greece in October, have scored eleven goals in three games (avg 3.6pg), against opponents like the Republic of Ireland and Finland.

Can such wild statistics really predict the future?