World Cup 2026 Semifinals: How the Favourites Look After the Round of 16

This World Cup grew before it even kicked off. Forty eight teams, an extra knockout round nobody had seen before, and a calendar that runs all the way to July 19. The Round of 16 is underway now, and the road to the semifinals is already throwing up a few surprises.

A Bigger Format Means More Games Than Ever

No World Cup has ever handed out 104 matches before. The United States, Mexico and Canada are hosting this edition across twelve groups of four, with the top two from each group plus the eight best third placed teams moving on. That extra layer forced organisers to squeeze in a brand new stage, the Round of 32, before teams even reached the Round of 16 that runs from July 4 to July 7.

That appetite for a prediction does not stop at the final whistle. Plenty of fans checking odds through Paripesa Kenya have noticed the same pattern, interest spikes every time a Round of 16 matchup gets confirmed. Makes sense. A 48-team field means more live brackets to follow than any previous tournament, and punters are not going to sit that one out.

What is tighter is the calendar still to come. Quarterfinals run July 9 to 11, semifinals land on July 14 and 15, the third place game is July 18, and the final is set for MetLife Stadium on Sunday July 19. Here is the run-in at a glance:

• Quarterfinals: July 9 to 11, venues across the United States
• Semifinals: July 14 and 15
• Third place playoff: July 18
• Final: July 19, MetLife Stadium

The Numbers Behind France and a Rebuilding Argentina

The stats models already have a favourite, and it is not exactly a shock. France, the reigning runners up, rolled into the Round of 16 after a 3-0 win over Sweden, and Opta's model gives them a 45.37 percent chance of reaching the final with a 30.04 percent chance of winning it outright. Worth remembering these are algorithm outputs, not a script somebody already wrote.

Argentina tells a different story. Before the tournament started they sat fourth among the favourites at just 10.4 percent, behind Spain, France and England. The same models now put them around 87 percent to get past Cabo Verde, 29.30 percent to reach the final again, and only 15.47 percent to lift the trophy a second straight time. It says something about how quickly these numbers shift once real results start coming in, and anyone comparing markets through Paripesa Kenya will notice the odds moving in step with the model updates almost in real time.

Do the different models even agree with each other? Not always, and that is half the fun of it. Three teams are drawing most of the attention right now:

• France, with Kylian Mbappé leading the line and the best title odds according to Opta
• Argentina, the defending champions, climbing back from a fourth place preseason ranking
• Spain, unbeaten through the group stage and defensively airtight for three straight matches

Upsets, Injuries and a Defence Under Pressure

Paraguay already wrote the line everyone will remember from the Round of 32. Germany, four time champions, were held to a 1-1 scoreline through ninety minutes and extra time, and when it came down to spot kicks Paraguay came out on top 4-3, with José Canale burying the shot that sent the Germans home. Paraguay's president declared a national holiday the next day. That is how seriously it landed back home.

Spain had not conceded a single goal through the group stage, a 0-0 with Cabo Verde, a 4-0 win over Saudi Arabia, a 1-0 over Uruguay. That shutout streak finally broke in the Round of 32, where Spain beat Austria 3-0 behind a Mikel Oyarzabal brace and moved into the Round of 16. Waiting there is Portugal, who edged out Croatia 2-1 on a stoppage time Gonçalo Ramos header, setting up a heavyweight meeting between Cristiano Ronaldo and Luka Modric. The lingering concern for Luis de la Fuente is the same one from the group stage, injuries to Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino.

Brazil, meanwhile, needed a 95th minute Gabriel Martinelli goal just to get past Japan, a reminder that none of the traditional heavyweights are cruising through this tournament untouched. Between France holding the best model odds, Argentina rebuilding its case, and Paraguay proving the computers can be wrong, one thing is certain, the Round of 16 through the semifinals will keep giving people plenty to argue about right up to July 19.