Promoted and pointless: the worst starts by newly promoted sides

Coventry City waited 25 years to get back to the Premier League. Five games in, they have one win and just one goal to show for it. Frank Lampard's side lost 3-0 at Arsenal, 1-0 at home to Hull City, 1-0 at Manchester City and 5-0 at home to Brighton before Jay Dasilva's goal won it 1-0 at Nottingham Forest on September 19.

That leaves Coventry 18th with three points going into the international break. For anyone looking at Premier League relegation betting, the promoted clubs who started this badly are the obvious place to look. The record is not kind.

Three points from five is a familiar hole

Between 1994-95 and 2025-26, 95 clubs came up into the Premier League. Of those, 24 had three points or fewer after five matches. Only three of the 24 stayed up.

The worst of them never recovered. Norwich City had zero points and two goals after five games in 2021-22 and went down with 22 points. Sunderland opened 2005-06 the same way and finished on 15. Derby County took one point from their first five in 2007-08 and ended on 11, still the lowest total in Premier League history.

Southampton had a single point from five in 2024-25 and finished with 12. Coventry are already ahead of all four of those sides, which is the only good news in the table.

Coventry's real problem is goals

Points can be recovered, but goals are harder to find. Coventry have scored once in five games, and that came in their only win.

Only two promoted clubs since 1994-95 had scored as few after five matches. Wolves managed one goal and conceded 12 at the start of 2003-04. Burnley scored once in their first five in 2014-15, a 3-1 home defeat to Chelsea, then lost at Swansea and drew three in a row 0-0. Both went down, and both finished on 33 points.

Coventry have also conceded 10, half of them in one afternoon against Brighton. A goal difference of minus nine after five games is a hole that gets deeper at the bottom of a tight table.

The three who got out

Southampton in 2012-13 are the closest match. Nigel Adkins' side lost their first four, including 6-1 at Arsenal, then beat Aston Villa 4-1. One win and four defeats is exactly Coventry's record. The difference was at the other end, with nine goals scored in those five games. Adkins was sacked in January 2013, Mauricio Pochettino took over and Southampton finished 14th on 41 points.

Crystal Palace had the same one-win, four-defeat record in 2013-14, with four goals scored. Ian Holloway left in October and Tony Pulis arrived in November. Palace finished 11th on 45 points and Pulis was named Premier League Manager of the Season.

West Brom took a different route in 2004-05. Three draws and two defeats gave them three points from five, and they were bottom at Christmas. Bryan Robson replaced Gary Megson in November, and a 2-0 win over Portsmouth on the final day kept them up on 34 points. They were the first side bottom at Christmas to survive.

All three changed manager during the season. All three had also scored more than Coventry after five games.

What it means for Coventry

Three survivors from 24 is one in eight. That is the base rate for a promoted side with three points or fewer after five games, and Coventry's goal return puts them in worse company than most of the 24.

The next run offers something. After the break, Coventry host Newcastle United, go to Tottenham, then play Fulham and Sunderland at home, all in October. Three home games in four is the stretch where Lampard needs goals, not just points.

Hull City, promoted alongside them, have eight points and sit eighth. Ipswich Town are 17th on six. Of the three promoted clubs, Coventry now look the likeliest to go straight back down, and history says that reading is usually right.