USMNT World Cup 2026 Opponents: Favorable Draw But Will Mauricio Pochettino’s Side Progress?

All eyes were on the FIFA 2026 World Cup draw on Friday, as fifty-plus nations watched with anticipation to see who they would be drawn against in the upcoming competition. With 48 teams able to play in the event, many watching still have to qualify through a playoff process.

That isn’t a problem for the US, as they gained automatic qualification by virtue of being a co-host of the 2026 tournament, along with Canada and Mexico. And, following the draw, it seems Mauricio Pochettino’s team has a favorable draw, albeit on paper.

Who were the USMNT drawn against?

At the 2026 FIFA World Cup, the USMNT were placed in Group D and were joined by Paraguay, Australia, and the winner of UEFA Playoff C (Türkiye, Romania, Slovakia, or Kosovo). Indeed, on paper, these opponents look favorable when it comes to progressing to the next stage of the tournament.

In fact, things look so promising that it is already possible to place bets on Pochettino’s team to qualify. Sports betting sites are now offering residents in the state to place wagers on the upcoming competition and the USMNT’s chances after sports betting went legal at the beginning of December 2025.

The USMNT opens against Paraguay on June 12 at SoFi Stadium, followed by matches against Australia and the playoff winner.

What are the USMNT's chances?

When looking at the three fixtures that are to be played, it’s possible to infer the potential success that the USMNT will have at the 2026 FIFA World Cup during Group D.

Paraguay could pose a tricky challenge for Pochettino’s side, as they accumulated 28 points from 18 games. This was the same points total as Brazil, Ecuador, and Colombia, while only Ecuador conceded fewer goals in South American qualifying. The 28 points earned were eight more than Bolivia, who are in the playoffs. There have been nine games between the nations, with the US winning five. This included a 2-1 victory last month, when Gio Reyna and Folarin Balogun scored.

Australia can be difficult, but the USMNT will feel confident that they can get past the Socceroos. Despite qualifying automatically by finishing second in Group C during the Asian Football Confederation (AFC) qualification, they showed signs of inconsistency. They won the first six games before losing to Bahrain and drawing with Indonesia. They would win four points against Japan and beat Saudi Arabia 2-1 to qualify. Four matches have been held, with the USMNT winning 2-1 in October 2025, Haji Wright scoring both.

You’d have to expect Türkiye to be the favorite to join them from the European playoff, and this may be the more difficult challenge for the USMNT. The Turks have several superstars on their roster, with Arda Guler, Kenan Yildiz, Can Uzun, Hakan Calhanoglu, Baris Alper Yilmaz, and Kerem Akturkoglu just a few of them. Five games have been played in the past, with both teams winning twice and one draw. The last match was in June 2025, with Türkiye winning 2-1. Jack McGlynn scored in the first minute before conceding twice in three minutes in the first half.

USMNT should qualify

With the next stage being the ‘Round of 32’, the USMNT’s chances of qualifying are high. They should expect to finish in the top two, which would give them an automatic spot.

However, with 48 teams involved, they can finish inside the top eight teams to have the best third-placed finish to book their place and continue their 2026 FIFA World Cup dreams in front of a home crowd.

With this in mind, anything other than qualification from Group D would have to be considered a failure by Mauricio Pochettino and his USMNT side.