The English Premier League (PL) is one of the most popular leagues in the world. It’s dominated its European rivals over the years attracting over 3.2 billion viewers in the 2019/20 season. The PL is home to big-name players, which explains the number of fans.
It’s also a very competitive league with a fair share of surprises every week. The most recent unexpected result is Arsenal’s loss to a struggling Everton side. The Toffees’ 1-0 win against the league leaders put an exciting twist on the top of the table. Subsequent results have pushed Arsenal to second place behind Manchester City on goal difference.
But the 2022/23 trophy race isn’t the only exciting thing about the PL. Several teams are fighting to get into next season’s European competitions, while others try their best not to be relegated. One of the more disappointing teams this season is Everton, who is at a big risk of relegation from the Premier League despite a cash influx from landing their new sponsor Stake.com.
Things are getting heated in the Premier League as the second half of the season begins. So, what should gamblers expect in the remaining games of the campaign? This article will cover all the must-know betting trends for the rest of the season.
Betting trends for the Premier League winners
Manchester City has dominated the Premier League for five years, emerging winners in four seasons. Liverpool was their close rival during that period, but the Reds only got the better of the Citizens once.
However, this campaign looks a little different for both teams. Here are some of the facts you must know before placing any bet on PL matches:
The PL standings
The PL table this season is interesting, to say the least. First, Arsenal has shown they can compete with Manchester City to the wire despite having the youngest squad in the league. The Gunners began the season on a high note, losing only once in the campaign’s first half.
Arsenal had a healthy lead at the PL summit going into 2023, but that has since changed. Losses to Everton and Manchester City and a draw against Brentford gave the Citizens a chance to catch up. Of course, Arsenal still has one game in hand, but the Sky Blues are now breathing down their necks.
Third-placed Manchester United also still has a shot at this season’s title. Despite a poor start in August 2022, Erik Ten Hag’s men are currently in the form of their lives. However, the fact that the Red Devils are still playing in all competitions could be a disadvantage in their title race. Playing twice a week with a thin squad depth may lead to injuries and fatigue.
Newcastle, Fulham, and Brighton are the most impressive teams in the current PL standings. The three are fighting for a chance to play in next season’s European competitions. Brentford is another underdog in great form. The Bees have taken points from the big guns this season, beating the Manchester clubs and Liverpool in that run.
On the other hand, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Everton have been underwhelming so far. The Blues were the biggest spenders in January, but they’ve only managed two wins after returning from the World Cup. They sit 10th, with Liverpool just four points ahead of them. Everton is only one point clear of the relegation zone.
Who is the bookmakers’ favourite to win the league?
According to the bookmakers, Manchester City remain favourites to win the title despite their draw against Nottingham Forest. The Sky Blues’ odds are at 4/6, but a lot is likely to change in the coming weeks.
Arsenal had a near-perfect run before the World Cup. However, their recent rough patch puts the Gunners just two points ahead of Manchester City. Their odds currently stand at 11/8 as the second favourites to take it home.
As mentioned earlier, Manchester United is also in the mix. The Red Devils reignited their title race after beating their noisy neighbours and have only lost to Arsenal since then. The bookmakers put them at 16/1 to pull a comeback and win the league against Arsenal and Manchester City.
Of course, it’ll be a big ask, given Arsenal’s form and Manchester City’s quality. Also, the Red Devils still play in all competitions. Not to mention that they’re already dealing with injuries to key players like Christian Ericksen, Anthony Martial, and Scott McTominay.
Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United’s chances to win the league have dropped recently. The Spurs’ 4-1 loss to Leicester puts them at 500/1. So, it’s fair to say Antonio Conte’s side isn’t a serious contender as it stands.
Newcastle still has an outside chance of pulling a surprise. The Magpies have had an impressive run since the change of ownership in 2021. Edie Howie’s men currently sit fourth behind Manchester United. The bookmakers have them at 150/1 to win the title.
UEFA Champions League and Europa League qualifying teams
Another heated area is the race for European football. The Union of European Football Association (UEFA) introduced a third competition, UEFA Europa Conference League, in 2021.
Seven clubs from the Premier League can now play in either the Champions League, Europa League, or Europa Conference League. So, how are the teams distributed, and who stands a chance? Have a quick look:
UEFA Champions League (UCL) qualification is straightforward, with the top four qualifying for the Group Stage. The current table standings suggest that the top two clubs have already secured their place in next season’s UCL unless something dramatic happens. As a result, Manchester City has been removed from the betting list by most sites.
Manchester United sits firmly in third on the PL table. However, their place in the top four isn’t 100% secured. The fifth-place Newcastle are just eight points behind them with a game in hand. Nevertheless, the Red Devils are still favourites at 1/8 to get into next season’s UCL Group Stage.
Newcastle, Tottenham, Fulham, Brighton, and Liverpool are other huge contenders for the top four. Of course, Spurs and the Magpies are the strongest of the lot, with just a point separating the two in the fourth and fifth positions. Antonio Conte’s side is at 9/4, while Newcastle is 6/4 to play in UCL for the first time in many years.
Liverpool has had a disappointing season so far, but they seem to be slowly picking up momentum. According to bookmakers, the Reds have a 27% chance of playing in the UCL next season despite their poor run.
The English Premier League is awarded two Europa League places. The first one goes to the fifth-placer and the other qualifying team is the FA Cup winner. However, if the FA Cup winner is already in Europe, that chance is allocated to the sixth-placed club.
Who are the favourites to play in next season’s Europa League? Newcastle United and Tottenham Hotspur are already battling for the top four. But with the first three teams in solid positions, one of the two is likely to finish outside the top four.
The Magpies are on 2/7, while the Spurs have 1/3 odds of finishing in the top 6. Liverpool also stands a great chance of getting into next season’s Europa League with 1/4 odds.
Other teams worth noting are Chelsea, Brighton, and Fulham. The Blues haven’t had a good season, but they could make a turnaround in the coming matches. On the other hand, Brighton and Fulham are recording impressive results. They’re both on 33/19 and 23/2, respectively.
UEFA Europa Conference League qualification
The Conference League position is given to the Carabao Cup winner. But if the winner is already in UCL or Europa League, the chance goes to the next unqualified team on the table. So, if FA and Carabao Cup winners have already qualified, the seventh-place team secures a place in the Conference League.
Many teams are fighting for the final European spot. As it stands, only four points separate seventh-placed Brighton from Chelsea in 10th. With an average of 15 games to play for each team, that difference could disappear at any time.
Of course, Liverpool is a favourite because of its position and quality. However, given the league’s competitiveness, you can’t rule out Brighton and Brentford.
The relegation battle
The battle to remain in the PL next season is intensifying. There are about eight teams still in the thick of it, with Aston Villa and Crystal Palace seemingly off the hook. If the past decade is anything to go by, then 35 points are enough for survival. Villa and Palace are the only teams closer to that magical mark in the bottom half of the table.
However, the Eagles are closer to the danger zone than the 35-point mark. So, it’s fair to say that Palace isn’t entirely safe, but it’s one of the favourites to avoid the ignominy of dropping out. But what about those below them?
Nottingham Forest (9/4)
Following Patrick Viera’s men on the table standings is Nottingham Forest. The newly promoted side was among the busiest in the summer transfer window.
Despite bringing in the likes of Jesse Lingard, Renan Lodi, and Dean Henderson, Forest still faces the prospect of going down. Bookmakers have placed the Tricky Trees at 9/4 with a 31% chance of relegation.
Leicester City (8/1)
Next in line is Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester City. The Foxes found themselves bottom of the table at some point this season. However, their recent form has seen them pull away from the danger zone.
Rodgers’ men were on a 3-game unbeaten run before losing 3-0 to the in-form Manchester United. Most bookmakers currently have them at 8/1 to be relegated at the time of writing.
Wolverhampton Wanderers (7/2)
Wolves have had a few impressive seasons in the top division, but this isn’t one of them. The Wanderers finished 7th in their first two PL campaigns under Nuno Espirito Santo. However, they’ve struggled to maintain the same standards after Nuno’s departure in 2021.
The Wanderers are only five points away from the danger zone with less than half of the season to go. According to bookmakers, they have a 13% chance of going down, and their odds of doing so are 7/2.
Frank Lampard took the reins at Goodison Park in 2022, but things didn’t go well. The former Chelsea manager’s 27.27% win percentage saw him part ways with the Merseyside club earlier in 2023.
Everton fans enjoyed an immediate reaction from the Toffees as they went on to win against the league leaders, Arsenal. They followed that with a loss to their arch-rivals in the Merseyside derby. But a 1-0 win at home to Leeds gives the table a slightly better reading for Everton fans.
However, the Toffees are nowhere near safe from relegation. The bookmakers place them at 6/5 to go down.
The Cherries were the first team to sack their manager this season, with Scott Parker leaving Vitality Stadium in August 2022. Bournemouth sacked Scott following a 9-0 loss to Liverpool, their third loss in the season’s first four games.
The Cherries currently sit one point off the relegation zone after a 1-0 win against Wolves. But with tough games still to come, Bournemouth may find it challenging to maintain their spot in next season’s Premier League campaign. It’s the least favourite to survive relegation, with more than an 83% chance of finishing in the bottom three.
West Ham United (10/3)
What’s happening at the London Stadium? That’s what many Premier League fans are asking as the Hammers find themselves in unfamiliar territory. A few weeks ago, West Ham faced Everton in what many believed would determine the fate of both teams’ managers.
The Hammers won the match, which led to Frank Lampard’s sacking. David Moyes has not managed a win since then, which put West Ham in a poor position on the table. But the bookmakers believe that Moyes’ men can still redeem themselves, giving them only a 14% chance of falling into the Championship.
Leeds United (11/10)
Jesse March loved life at Leeds in his early weeks in the Premier League. However, things went south months later, with Leeds dismissing the American just before the trip to Manchester.
A 2-2 draw against the in-form Manchester United showed that the Whites can still make it out of the danger zone. However, they still have a 33% chance of not enjoying another season in the top division.
Sitting at the bottom of the table are the Saints, with the most losses in the league. Most teams that have found themselves in the 20th position at this stage of the season have rarely survived.
Southampton may find themselves in the Championship next season unless dramatic changes occur. The bookmakers believe the Saints have an 82% chance of failing to make the cut.
The 2022/23 Premier League season has seen several impressive teams. Brighton, Brentford, Fulham, and Newcastle have surprised many with their results. There’s also been a fair share of underachievers in the league, with Liverpool, Everton, and Chelsea topping that list.
As battles intensify in various areas of the table, the second half of the 2022/23 season promises to be an exciting watch. Before you bet on any PL team, check their current form and position because things are changing rapidly.