How do you scout a Striker?

How do you scout a Striker?

How do you scout a Striker?
How do you scout a Striker? A good Striker might be worth his weight in gold, but a recent study by 11tegen11 seems to indicate that judging forwards strictly by their goal tally might be more than a bit deluded.
Goals scored is an easy statistic to...
How do you scout a Striker? A good Striker might be worth his weight in gold, but a recent study by 11tegen11 seems to indicate that judging forwards strictly by their goal tally might be more than a bit deluded.
Goals scored is an easy statistic to...
How do you scout a Striker? A good Striker might be worth his weight in gold, but a recent study by 11tegen11 seems to indicate that judging forwards strictly by their goal tally might be more than a bit deluded.
Goals scored is an easy statistic to...

How do you scout a Striker?

A good Striker might be worth his weight in gold, but a recent study by 11tegen11 seems to indicate that judging forwards strictly by their goal tally might be more than a bit deluded.

Goals scored is an easy statistic to default to when considering the merits of any player, but it’s also one that can be unreliable. For every Luis Suarez who takes a new league by storm, there’s an overwhelming number of Jozy Altidore’s who struggle to make an impact with new teams despite a healthy track record in front of goal. According to 11tegen11, the explanation is pretty straight-forward.

Here’s the gist: in terms of scouting, strikers are often evaluated in terms of two measurements: their ability to get into scoring positions and create quality chances, as well as their ability to convert those chances into goals. It makes logical sense. Strikers have to put themselves into dangerous positions to create opportunities, and then must make the most of those opportunities to score goals. Sure, a player who always gets in behind the defense is useful, but if he can’t score goals, what’s the point? Right?

Well, not exactly.

It turns out that the number of goals a striker scores one season doesn’t necessarily correlate to the number he’ll score the following season. But while that might be a shocker, here’s the kicker: the correlation between the number of chances a striker creates one season and the next is extremely high.

What does this all mean? “If a striker bases his goal scoring mainly on conversion, he has a good chance to fail in the next season.” However, if a striker bases his goal scoring mostly on creating quality shots and opportunities, he’ll likely keep up his pace of scoring.

Essentially it comes down to a single rule: never buy a striker simply because he scores plenty of goals and looks good on paper. There’s always a deeper level to consider, and thankfully, statisticians are exposing us to that new world. Here’s to the future. [Posted by Maxi]