If an octopus (RIP Paul) can do it, so can we: AFR’s predictions for Euro 2012

If an octopus (RIP Paul) can do it, so can we: AFR’s predictions for Euro 2012

If an octopus (RIP Paul) can do it, so can we: AFR’s predictions for Euro 2012

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It’s nearly here, and you can’t say you didn’t see it coming. Eight months ago, Wayne Rooney flicked his boot toward a forgotten Montenegrin, and the Euro-drama carnival clicked into gear. Capello left and Hodgson came, and England was engulfed in a saga that revolved largely around a man who won’t be at the Euros. Across the Channel, France wait for Zidane to return and carry them to the final. Italy, humiliated by another match-fixing scandal that has threatened to rear its ugly head for some time now, have been dealt the further indignity of their Prime Minister suggesting that football be suspended for “two or three years”. The Dutch have the inconvenience of having to decide between Robin van Persie (37 goals) and Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (48); ten of Ukraine’s finest have fallen ill due to a dodgy salad; and the Irish are just happy to be along for the ride. Everyone is worried about Germany; no-one is giving Portugal a chance; and someone might watch Greece play the Czech Republic.

For all the theatrics, we can rest assured that there will be some tremendous football over the next month. Everyone else is dusting off their crystal ball and learning how to gaze, so we thought we’d give it a shot as well. A few AFR contributors, as well as a selection of top defenders of the football blogging tradition, are laying their necks down on the chopping block and going Mayan. It’s 2012, and anything could conceivably happen. Here are our European Championships predictions…

Andrew Thomas – SB Nation/Soccer, The FCF, Twisted Blood

Winner: France. Benzema is brilliant, there’s talent behind him, and they’ve been getting better and better under Blanc. If Rami and Mexes can maintain their concentration, they’ll do well. But then I always [over?]rate France because of the shapely football, sexy kits, and perpetual flirtation with comedy meltdown. I tipped them to reach at least the semi-finals in South Africa, and that went well.

Top scorer: Benzema. I also have a sneaky suspicion that Nicklas Bendtner will score a few, and I am sure that even if nobody else agrees with me, Nicklas does.

Dark horse: Russia. The strongest team in the weakest group should – should – qualify top and face the second-placed team from the deadliest of the others. Any hint of their opponents being knackered or punchdrunk, and Russia have enough quality to take advantage.

Player to watch: It’s an obvious choice, but then there are no mysteries in modern football. I intend to spend as much time as possible gazing at the cherubic genius of Denmark’s Christian Eriksen, even though I know it will just make it worse when he moves to Manchester City for eleventy squillion pounds only to rot, unloved, on the bench.

Most likely media cliché: For the first few games at least, the admirable contortions of “with expectations so low, maybe England can go further than we expect”. When you’ve nothing left to cling to, cling to that. 

Subplot to keep an eye on: Apart from IS-ROY-HODGSON-A-BIG-FAT-RACIST-GATE? It will be interesting to see whether Greece manage (or even bother to try) to integrate their young attacking talents, Sotiros Ninis and Ioannis Fetfatzidis, into what is otherwise a savagely functional team. I hope they do; I suspect they won’t.

Andrew McGowan

Winner: Germany. Talent, vision, verve and brio enough to compensate for the shipping crate that is Per Mertesacker.

Top scorer: Alexander Kerzakhov. With busy little interchanges around the box involving Shirokov, Dzagoev and Arshavin, Kerza could plunder a hat-trick in the group and never look back. The Oleg Salenko de nos jours.

Dark horse: If France show up, they have the talent to win the tournament. If they respond to setbacks by shrugging indolently from behind a wreath of Gauloises smoke, they could fall at the group stage. Whatever happens, they won’t be dull.

Dark horse that isn’t Italy or France: Russia. Marvellous going foward, though they’ll need Akinfeev or Malafeev to be at their best behind their slightly immobile centre-halves. This could be adventurous full-back Alexandr Anyukov’s breakthrough tournament, too.

Player to watch: Alan ‘Moves Like’ Dzagoev. Tricky, direct and quick, he could surprise a few flat-footed defences. If the classy Javi Martinez gets minutes for Spain he should excel. And - you know what, I’m going there - Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain.

Most likely media cliché: Close your eyes. You can already see a shiny-shirted Gary Lineker earnestly discussing 'Dutch infighting’ in your mind’s eye, can’t you? Look to his right and you’ll see Shearer calling Italy defensive and Germany well-organised. Charlatans, the lot of 'em.

Subplot to keep an eye on: More subplots here than a particularly intricate ep of Game of Thrones. How will Calcioscommese affect the Italians? What effect will the scrutiny of the watching world have on Ukraine’s murky post-revolution political landscape? And will John Terry’s QC really be named Defender of the Tournament?

Dermot Corrigan - El Pais, Fox Soccer, When Saturday Comes, mucho más…

Winner: Spain. Even with Carles Puyol and David Villa injured, Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta exhausted and Gerard Piqué and Fernando Torres woefully out of form, Spain can still win it. All the other contenders have their own problem areas (especially in defence) and Spain still have by far the best midfield options. So I’m taking them to make history and claim third successive major international tournament.

Top scorer: Robin van Persie. Again not the most outrageous of suggestions, but Robin van Persie looks easily the best bet for top scorer. Karim Benzema looks in decent nick and Miroslav Klose and Klaas Jan Huntelaar could also do damage, but RVP looks guaranteed to always play and could also get free-kicks and penalties. For a long shot I’ll steer clear of the Robert Lewandowski bandwagon and suggest Alexander Kerzhakov and maybe also Olivier Giroud if he gets enough game time.

Dark horse: Russia. Tempted to say France, but going to go a bit darker and suggest Russia. They should have no troubles in the group stages, and then could face a Germany or Holland team weary after three much tougher opening games. Dick Advocaat’s side look maybe ropey defensively, but have lots of pace and goals up front and could make semis at least I’m thinking.

Player to watch: Frank Ribery. Ribery was possibly Bayern’s best player in their run to the Champions League final, and seems to have at last re-found his form at international level too. After more than three years without an international goal, he scored twice in France’s warm-ups, and both were crackers. His understanding with Karim Benzema looks to be coming on nicely too, and if they both click France could go far. 

Most likely media cliché: Spain = Barcelona. Spain may have Xavi Hernandez and Andres Iniesta pulling the strings, but they are still quite a different team to Barcelona. They don’t have Lionel Messi, of course, but tactically the set-up is quite different too, with two deep ‘pivote’ midfielders and likely a target-man centre-forward in either Fernando Llorente or Fernando Torres and a winger who gets to the byeline and crosses the ball in Jesus Navas. They could also quite easily line up with as many Real Madrid players in their starting XI. I’m still expecting plenty of references to coaches learning from how Roberto Di Matteo’s Chelsea beat Barcelona ahead of Spain’s clashes with Italy and Ireland in the group stages though.

Subplot to keep an eye on: With Puyol out Spain look certain to field Gerard Pique and Sergio Ramos as their centre-half pairing. It is fair to say that the two have not always got on, tending to symbolise the worst excesses in the Barcelona / Madrid rivalry at club level. Even Vicente del Bosque has spoken publicly to remind them they need to put off the pitch differences aside and pull together for La Roja. Expect Madrid and  or Catalan press to jump on any mistakes to apportion blame should Spain disappoint.

Max Grieve - Senior Writer at AFR, editor of The Substitution

Winner: Spain. Most of the players have sore legs and would probably like to sit down for a while, but there’s an overwhelming quality in Spanish football at the moment to the point that people were questioning whether Fernando Torres should be in the squad – it’s ridiculous. Germany and the Netherlands each have troubles at the back, and though Puyol and Villa will be missed, Spain always have Lionel Messi to fall back on, and with Dani Alves pushing up on the right, as well as Alexis Sanchez cutting inside, they should have enough to just about get past any opponent.

Top scorer: Karim Benzema. With the Dutch forward line still not completely decided as I understand, I’m not sure that van Persie is as good a shout as the Frenchman. With support from the wings, and drive from behind, I wouldn’t bet against a group stage hat-trick against any side France meet. Spain, I think, should score more than they did in South Africa, but as with the Dutch, it’s perhaps a little difficult to see where they’re going to come from given their uncertain attacking lineup.

Dark horse: France. The forward line is terrifying, and that’s just Ribéry’s face. With Benzema and Nasri alongside him, France pose a real attacking threat, have a solid midfield, and a generally decent defence; the basic foundations to a good side. The only thing that is stopping them from turning cautious optimism into full-blown blind hype is the lack of a midfield pivot…they miss Zidane.

Dark horse that isn’t Italy or France: England – no, really. It’s not as though I’m writing this with St George’s Cross slapped across my face either – I’ll be watching the whole thing from Australia. It’s not altogether impossible to see England putting a few 1-0 wins together and reaching the latter stages of the tournament. I genuinely have high hopes for Andy Carroll (6ft 3in worth of hopes) and his thunderous left foot, and think that Roy Hodgson might just have something of a plan: West Ham won it in 1966, Liverpool will win it in 2012. Whilst it’s foolish to always turn to Denmark and Greece when we’re scraping the bottom of the optimism barrel, Denmark and Greece did both win.

Player to watch: Ibrahim Afellay. Götze, Eriksen and Strootman are being touted as the futures of their respective nations, but all (except perhaps the German) are unlikely to star amongst the big boys. Rather, it will be interesting to see how Afellay, who has done little in the past year besides from looking pretty with a medal draped around his neck, feeds the Dutch forward line from wide. Keep and eye out for John Terry too – you never know where he might pop up. 

Most likely media cliché: After 10 years of international exile, Robbie Keane and his plucky band of Irishmen are just happy to be at a big tournament – except they’re not. Just as with the sickeningly nostalgic FA Cup coverage, Ireland are likely to be subject to patronising statements such as this throughout their stint at the Euros. Robbie Keane used to play for Liverpool, so he clearly has a winning mentality, and if that isn’t enough, we can always turn to maths to dispel the myth. Greece were 150/1 to win Euro 2004. Ireland are 66/1 to win this time around. Need I go deeper?

Subplot to keep an eye on: It has to be Calcioscommesse. Italian football has been waiting to explode again, and sure enough it has, just in time for the Euros. Domenco Criscito had his room searched at the Italian training camp in Florence (just in case he had decided to take any incriminating evidence with him to Poland and Ukraine), the Prime Minister has, seemingly seriously, suggested that Italian football be suspended for a few years, and Cesare Prandelli (try saying his name in an Italian accent; it sounds wonderful) has said he would have no problem pulling Italy out of the tournament. It’s gloriously dramatic, typically Italian and, just as in 1982 and 2006, will probably see them win the thing.

Eric Beard - Founder/Editor at AFR

Winner: I look at Spain’s squad, their past few years, and think, “How can these guys still be as hungry for trophies as other players?” The truth is that Spain’s Real Madrid and FC Barcelona-heavy team had a season with tremendous moments of disappointment. The Champions League was there for a Spanish club’s taking, but both powerhouses were humiliated in their own respective stadiums. This shared sense of dissatisfaction has united a team that often seems on the brink of division. Carles Puyol and David Villa are monumental losses, but Sergio Ramos, Sergio Busquets, and Fernando Llorente have matured as players since 2010 and will fill these holes.

Dark Horse: Over the past two years, what has seemed like self-degradation and a perennial existential crisis has, somehow, turned France into something substantial. The French won’t consider themselves on par with the Germans or the Spanish just yet, but their unreachably high expectations have done a fantastic job in overshadowing the fact that Laurent Blanc’s squad is capable of achieving success, especially considering their relatively weak group.

Dark horse that isn’t Italy or France: Ireland. No, I’m not going to say Ireland can win the Euros, but I do think they can make a decent run. There’s a chance for them to play France in a quarterfinal, which I expect to play out like that one time when Uma Thurman went to find Bill.

First Round Casualty: The Netherlands.Remember Holland-Portugal in the 2006 World Cup? Portugal won courtesy of a Maniche strike, but only after a flurry of cards (16) were held in the air like a David Blaine trick gone wrong. Germany seem the safest bet to go through in the Group of Death with the Netherlands, Denmark, and Portugal, and the loser of the Netherlands v. Portugal will likely exit the tournament. Both squads have exquisite attacks that upstage their respective back lines. We could see a beautiful match, but Pepe and Nigel De Jong will certainly do their best to prevent this from being the case. Ultimately, I think Ronaldo could be the player to make the difference (not to bring back the Nike jinx!) and send Holland hup hup-ing home.

Top Scorer: Karim Benzema. We always talk about form, but the top scorer in a major tournament is usually more dependent on a team’s success. France have been looking potent in attack, and Laurent Blanc’s squad could make it deep into the knockout stage. Karim is in sensational form, so don’t put it past him to score a few “Benzebuts.”

Player to Watch: Maarten Stekelenburg.After a high-profile move from Ajax to Roma, Stekelenburg was expected to replicate the form he showed in both Amsterdam and South Africa. However, things did not go as planned in Italy’s capital. The 29-year-old did not have a memorable season, and one has to wonder how confident he is as the Netherlands’ #1 in goal, especially with Tim Krul coming off yet another fantastic season with Newcastle. If we see “South Africa” Stekelenburg, then the Dutch have a real chance of winning the tournament. However, if we see “Serie A” Stekelenburg, then the Netherlands could just as easily crash out of Group B courtesy of a poorly held shot from Ronaldo.

Most likely media cliché: I think location of a tournament rarely has an effect on anyone, outside of the host. Yet people are adamantly backing Russia, partially for this reason (though mostly because Russia has a solid side). Poland has a chance to do well, but let’s be honest, the best team will win the Euros because of the way they play on the pitch.

Subplot to keep an eye on: Is it okay to say the “r-word” (not that one) or will Michel Platini pop up behind me with a yellow card? Racism will rear its ugly head over the next month, and it will be interesting to see which players - and global icons - take a moment to stand up for their fellow professionals and call out UEFA, FIFA, and everyone else staying silent.